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Family foundations and wealthy billionaires have led the pack in a strong first half year of charitable giving. At the outset of 2015, Atlas of Giving, a philanthropic-giving forecasting service, had predicted that charitable gifts would actually drop 3.2% from last year’s $482.3 billion. But that’s a far cry from how the year has shaken out so far. The Atlas of Giving’s mid-year check-up showed charitable giving up 7.6% to $238.9 billion versus the first half of 2014.

The since revised full-year projection for 2015 now has giving up 5.6%. In hindsight, the Atlas of Giving’s prediction was set up for failure. The forecasters were looking for an early correction in the stock market and weaker economic growth.

But maybe they will prove right after all, and it’s just their timing that was off. Consider: Oil’s decline and how it will effect philanthropic giving. In the past twelve months, charitable giving in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Texas was on a tear, with gifting in these energy-sector dependent states up 6.5%, 12.5% and 11.7% respectively, among the highest in the fifty states.

But there is usually a lag between sharp economic decline and a plunge in philanthropic giving, Mitchell says. Oil layoffs have since reached 150,000 nationwide, as the price of oil has plummeted more than 50% in the last year to $41 per barrel. “There’s going to be an impact and it’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out,” Mitchell says. A slowdown in giving may be on the horizon for the oil–heavy states in particular. Mitchell’s “best guess” is that the oil-price tumble starts to hit philanthropic giving sometime in the next eight to 24 months.

Mitchell’s early call on a correction in the stock market could also prove prescient. Yesterday was the worst one-day drop of the year in both the Dow and the S&P 500, after each fell more than 2%. “The market could change in a heartbeat,” he says. And that would definitely have an impact on giving.

In lieu of recent market gyrations and the coming dip in giving among oil-rich states, it’s possible that the Atlas of Giving’s 5.6% upward revision is now too rosy. Beware the coming dip. It’s only the precise timing that’s hard to pin down.